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Red meat and poultry production for the past year was lowered due to lower beef, pork, broiler and turkey production in the fourth quarter, according to the most recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.
Changes in the estimates reflected November production data and preliminary estimates of slaughtered numbers and weights for December. Egg production was lowered based on reduction of the layer flock as a result of highly pathogenic avian influenza-related culling in December.
The report was not a surprise to Glynn Tonsor, a professor in the department of agricultural economics at Kansas State University, as he noted uncertainty remains, particularly on hog inventories.
Beef
For 2025, the beef forecast was raised on an increase in steer and heifer slaughter due to higher placements expected during the fourth quarter of 2024, as well as higher dressed weights. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s cattle report is expected to be released Jan. 31, as well as producer intentions for retaining heifers for building the breeding herd. Tonsor said herd expansion is unlikely to occur in 2025.
“I do not see much current evidence of expansion and think it will be the summer of 2026 before we see that in a national and market-relevant way,” Tonsor said.
Production is pegged at 27.035 billion pounds on an annual basis in 2024 and is estimated in January at 26.985 billion pounds. In 2025, the annual projection is estimated at about 25.7 billion pounds.
Steers are expected to average about $196 per hundredweight for 2025, which is about $9.50 per hundredweight higher than 2024.
Beef imports and export estimates for 2024 were raised based on recent data, and, for 2025, beef imports are raised largely on continued strong shipments of beef from Oceania and South America. The export for 2025 is unchanged, the report noted.
“I think one of the more uncertain things for 2025 is how agricultural trade will shape up,” Tonsor said. “There is elevated policy uncertainty coupled with various expectations on the relative strength of the U.S. dollar that will impact trade.”
Regardless of who is president and their policies, the ag economist shares the same insight.
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