Ranchers hope Trump tariffs boost demand for cattle but some fear market uncertainty

Rancher Brett Kenzy hopes President Donald Trump's tariffs will make imported beef expensive enough that Americans will turn to cattle raised at home for all their hamburgers and steaks.

That might raise prices enough to give Kenzy and others the incentive they need to expand their herds for the first time in decades. But doing that would take at least two years, and it's not clear if Trump's tariffs on most of the world besides China are high enough to make that worth the investment.

“If we can just fix a few key things, I think that we can reinvigorate rural America,” said the South Dakota rancher. “Just get these imports under control, get them to a level that we can understand and plan on, and then let us fill the void. And I think that the American rancher can do that.”

Trump has enjoyed overwhelming support in rural parts of the country in his three campaigns for president. Still, the uncertainty created by the trade war he instigated has given some ranchers pause as they've watched cattle prices drop after the tariffs were announced.

“I just don’t like manipulated markets because somebody is going to artificially win and somebody is going to artificially lose,” said Bryant Kagay, who raises and feeds cattle as well as growing crops on his farm in northwest Missouri. “And how do I know it’s not going to be me?”

Ranchers hope the tariffs might create an incentive for them to raise more cattle, and the National Cattlemen trade group is salivating at the idea of selling more cuts of meat overseas if the tariffs lead to new trade deals with countries that don't buy much U.S. beef.