Beef production and fall beef demand

As of October 18, the daily Choice boxed beef price was $320.65/cwt., up from a recent low of $296.37/cwt on September 26 and the highest price since July 15. The weekly Choice boxed beef price is also at the highest level since July and has averaged 2.2 percent higher year over year and a record high for the year-to-date (Figure 1).

Beef prices

Numerous wholesale cuts have moved higher recently including chuck arm roast (IMPS 114E), chuck roll (116A), chuck mock tender (116B), and chuck flap (116G). Wholesale round cuts have also moved higher including round knuckle (167A), top inside round (169A), bottom (gooseneck) round (170), outside round (171B), and eye of round (171C).

Middle meat prices from the loin and rib have also increased including bottom sirloin flap (185A), sirloin tri-tip (185D), loin strip (180), and tenderloin (189A). Likewise, wholesale ribeye prices (112A) have increased recently and are showing an early seasonal demand for the holidays.

Thus far in 2024, steer slaughter is unchanged from one year ago. Heifer slaughter is down 1.6 percent year over year. Total fed slaughter is down 0.7 percent compared to last year, less than earlier expected. For the year-to-date, steer carcasses have averaged 25.5 pounds heavier than last year, and heifer carcasses are averaging 22.6 pounds heavier than one year ago.