EMEAT Consulting—Beef Market Analysis

Why are U.S. beef imports likely to remain elevated through the rest of 2026?

Several factors continue to support strong import volumes despite higher tariffs:

Brazil remains the biggest story.

Brazil has nearly exhausted its beef quota with China. Once the quota is filled, Brazilian beef entering China faces a 67% tariff (12% in-quota + 55% out-of-quota), making the U.S. a much more attractive destination. In comparison, Brazilian beef entering the U.S. faces a tariff of just 2¢/lb in-quota and 26.4% out-of-quota.

To put this into perspective:

• Brazil exported an average of 1.5 million metric tons (3.3 billion pounds) of beef annually to China in 2024 and 2025.
• Its 2026 quota for China is 2.44 billion pounds, leaving an estimated 870 million pounds subject to the higher out-of-quota tariff.
• That volume is nearly equivalent to an entire quarter of total U.S. beef imports.

Argentina's exports are also receiving a boost.

Beginning in February 2026, Argentina received an additional 44 million pounds of quarterly quota, equivalent to about 15 million pounds per month.

Australia still has room to grow.

With an annual quota of 264 million pounds, Australia has utilized only about one-third of its available quota so far this year.

Tariff policy remains a wildcard.

The U.S. administration has proposed a 200-day tariff holiday on imported beef, although the proposal is currently on hold following opposition from U.S. cattle producers.

Taken together, these developments suggest imported beef will continue to play an important role in U.S. beef supply during the second half of 2026.

At EMEAT Consulting, we continuously monitor the key supply and demand drivers shaping U.S. beef markets to help businesses anticipate price movements and make better-informed purchasing and sales decisions.

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