This is part 5 of a series of 5 Blogs.
2022-31 Projections for Meat Consumption, Production, and Trade by Country and Type of Meat
Using the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook’s most updated database (edition 2022), the EMEAT Market Analysis Team has prepared a detailed analysis by type of meat and country for key indicators such as total and per capital consumption, production, and trade (imports/exports).
Using the Easy Analytics approach that characterizes EMEAT, we have been able to condense large amounts of data into a few easy-to-understand charts.
Contents
| 1. Scope |
| 2. Analysis for All Major Types of Meat |
| 3. Analysis for Poultry Meat |
| 4. Analysis for Pigmeat |
| 5. Analysis for Beef and Veal |
| 6. Analysis for Sheepmeat |
| 7. Sources |
1. Scope
This analysis includes projections for the years 2022-31 for meat consumption, production, and trade (import/export).
The types of meat included are: poultry, pigmeat, beef and veal, and sheepmeat.
The analysis is also done by country, for the 34 countries included in the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2022-2031 database.
2. Analysis for All Major Types of Meat
Poultry is the meat type projected to have the highest growth (+13m tonnes), followed by Pigmeat (+6m tonnes), Beef & Veal (+1.9m tonnes), and Sheepmeat (+1m tonnes).
Most growth in meat consumption is projected to come from China (+6.4m tonnes): +3.2m tonnes from Pigmeat, +2.2m tonnes from Poultry meat, +500K tonnes from Beef & Veal, and +500K tonnes from Sheepmeat.
For most countries, Poultry is the meat type with the highest forecasted growth.
The European Union is projected to have the steepest decline in meat consumption (-341K tonnes), with significant consumption reductions in Beef & Veal (-386K tonnes) and Pigmeat (-338K tonnes), but with some growth in Poultry (+386K tonnes).
Significant per capita consumption changes include:
- Poultry: Malaysia, +17.2 Lbs; Peru, +15.7 Lbs; Colombia, +13.9 Lbs.
- Pigmeat: Russian Federation, +4.0 Lbs; Korea, +3.2 Lbs; China, +3.1 Lbs; Colombia, +2.9 Lbs.
- Beef and Veal: Australia, -6.6 Lbs; Argentina, -2.9 Lbs.
China is expected to experience the largest changes in import demand with -1.8m tonnes for Pigmeat and -545K tonnes for Poultry, driven by China’s massive increases in production of these animal proteins: +5m tonnes for Pigmeat and +2.7m tonnes for Poultry meat.
Other countries with significant production growth include the U.S. with +3 million tonnes (mostly Poultry and Pigmeat), India with +2.3 million tonnes (mostly Poultry), the Philippines, Pakistan, and Brazil.
The European Union is projected to lose 2 million tonnes of production, mostly of Pigmeat.
3. Analysis for Poultry Meat
Of the total expected growth in consumption (+13m tonnes), the countries with the largest contributions are China (+2.2m tonnes), India (+2m tonnes), and the United States (+1.5m tonnes).
Countries with large projected changes in per capita consumption include Malaysia (+17 Lbs), Peru (+16 Lbs), and Colombia (+14 Lbs).
On the trade side, the country with the largest expected increase in imports is the Philippines (+290K tonnes). The country with the largest projected decrease in imports is China (-545K tonnes).
Increases in production are driven by China (+2.7m tonnes), India (+2m tonnes), and the United States (+1.5m tonnes).
4. Analysis for Pigmeat
Of the total expected growth in consumption (+6m tonnes), the countries with the largest positive contributions are China (+3.2m tonnes), the United States (+860K tonnes), and the Philippines (+750K tonnes). The European Union is the only market with a large expected consumption reduction (-340K tonnes).
Countries with large projected changes in per capita consumption include the Philippines (+8 Lbs), the Russian Federation (+4 Lbs), Korea (+3.2 Lbs), China (+3.1 Lbs), Colombia (+2.90 Lbs), Canada (-1.6 Lbs), and Switzerland (-2.9 Lbs).
On the trade side, the country with the largest expected increase in imports is Mexico (+236K tonnes), and the ones with the largest projected reductions in imports are China (-1.8m tonnes) and the Philippines (-312K tonnes).
Increases in production are driven by China (+5m tonnes), the United States (+1m tonnes), and the Philippines (+1m tonnes).
5. Analysis for Beef & Veal
Of the total expected growth in consumption (+1.9m tonnes), the countries with the largest positive contributions are China (+500K tonnes) and Pakistan (+490K tonnes). The European Union is the only market with a large expected consumption reduction (-390K tonnes).
Countries with large projected changes in per capita consumption include Chile (+2.7 Lbs), Israel (+2.25 Lbs), New Zealand (-2.6 Lbs), Argentina (-2.9 Lbs), and Australia (-6.6 Lbs).
On the trade side, the country with the largest expected increase in imports is China (+213K tonnes), and the one with the largest projected reduction in imports is the Russian Federation (-131K tonnes).
Increases in production are driven by Pakistan (+470K tonnes), Australia (+470K tonnes), and the United States (+380K tonnes). The largest decrease in production is expected to come from the European Union (-480K tonnes).
6. Analysis for Sheepmeat
Of the total expected growth in consumption of almost 1m tonnes, the countries with the largest positive contributions are China (+510K tonnes), Pakistan (+180K tonnes), and India (+100K tonnes).
Countries with large projected changes in per capita consumption include Australia (-1 Lbs), Kazakhstan (-1 Lbs), and New Zealand (-1.2 Lbs).
On the trade side, the countries with the largest expected increase in imports are Saudi Arabia (+14K tonnes), and China (+13K tonnes). The market with the largest projected reduction in imports is the European Union with -30K tonnes.
Increases in production are driven by China (+490K tonnes), Pakistan (+185K tonnes), and India (+102K tonnes).
Prepared by the EMEAT Market Analysis Team
contact@emeat.io
7. Sources
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2022-2031 database
Database published: July 2022
https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/agriculture-and-food/data/oecd-agriculture-statistics_agr-data-en