Why Americans Are Paying More Than Ever for Beef

Gone are the days when grabbing a burger wouldn’t break the bank. These days, Americans are feeling the pinch more than ever when they’re craving a steak — and it’s not just inflation to blame. A perfect storm of industry constraints, coupled with supply and climate woes, has sent beef prices through the roof. Here’s a breakdown of what’s driving the cost, whether relief is coming anytime soon, plus what you’re actually seeing on store shelves.

What’s Driving Up Beef Prices?

A herd of black cattle grazes on a vibrant green field under a cloudy sky, with rolling hills and a few trees in the background.

One of the biggest culprits is a shrinking local supply. According to United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) data, the U.S. cattle herd is at its smallest size in decades, down 4% this year and expected to dip another 2% in 2026. Weather factors such as droughts and climate change have also reduced grazing capacity and driven up feed costs in states like California and Utah. As a result, a growing number of ranchers have scaled back their herds or diverted cattle away from breeding toward quicker slaughter, making future supplies even scarcer.

Meanwhile, foreign imports have also fallen. Brazilian beef now faces a steep 76% tariff, making it far less competitive in the U.S. market. At the same time, concerns over the “screwworm parasite” have prompted the USDA to halt livestock crossings from Mexico. In hopes of easing local prices, U.S. President Donald Trump has also floated the idea of importing beef from Argentina, much to the chagrin of American ranchers, who feel that undermines the “America first” promise.

Ranchers aren’t winning just because prices are up. Rising feed, labor, insurance, and transport costs are reducing margins across the board. Couple this with consolidation costs and dependence on lean beef imports (which face increased tariffs), and you’ve got a recipe for disaster. Even if things turn around, rebuilding a herd takes time. It can take 30 months or more to raise cattle from birth to slaughter-ready weight. That means today’s supply crunch might keep affecting prices for years.