While USDA forecasts rise in beef production in 2025, retail prices to remain strong

Negotiated sales in the Northern U.S. were mostly $203 to $205/cwt and $200 to $201/cwt in the South last week. Packers appeared to be on pace to top last week’s estimated harvest of 589,000 head which was 83,000 more than the previous week. Harvest schedules were impacted by winter weather last year when 545,000 head were harvested.

Higher wholesale prices have spurred the increase in live prices, although it should be noted that middle meats have lost ground while the end primals have increased. This reflects ground beef demand. The Choice Carcass value last week rose $4.45 to average $329.03 with strength carrying over into this week. The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report saw USDA raise expected beef production for 2025. Beef production is still estimated to be 4.4% less than 2024, however. USDA also raised the estimated average price of a beef breed steer from $191 to $196/cwt for 2025. November beef exports increased 10% year-over-year while value climbed 11%. For January through November, exports increased 5% in value from the same period in 2023, despite a 1% decline in volume. Beef export value equated to $428.70 per head of fed cattle harvested in November, 13% higher than a year ago and the highest since June.

WASDE report forecast rise in market hog prices for 2025

The pork cutout value was $1.15 lower last week, averaging $89.72. The WASDE report average price projections for market hogs in 2025 were raised $1 to $63 with a high of $70/cwt in the third quarter. Pork exports were 5% higher in November compared to a year ago, while export value increased 6%. Pork exports were 5% higher during the first 11 months of 2024 compared to 2023. Pork export value climbed to $72.20/ head in November, up 9% year-over-year.