What can we expect to see in the June Hogs and Pigs Report?

USDA’s June Hogs and Pigs Report comes out this Thursday afternoon. Many of the recent quarterly hog surveys have given us numbers little different than a year earlier and frequently little different than the average of pre-release trade forecasts. I expect a similar situation on Thursday. The range of my predictions for the 12 key quarterly numbers is 99.6% plus or minus 1 percentage point.

Regarding the market hog inventory, I estimate the inventory of hog weighing 180 pounds or more on June 1 to be 98.6% of a year earlier; the inventory of 120-179 pounds market hogs to be 99.3%; 50-119 pounders to be 99.6%; and the inventory of pigs weighing less than 50 pounds to be 100.6% of the year-earlier level.

For what it’s worth, I’m estimating the June 1 market hog inventory to be down 0.4% year-over-year. I’m predicting the breeding herd inventory at 99.8% and market herd at 99.6%. I estimate spring (March-May) farrowings were down 0.3% from last year. I’m forecasting farrowing intentions for June-August to be unchanged and September-November farrowing intentions to be up 0.5% year-over-year.