WASDE, Geopolitical Tensions, and Export Demand Shape Mixed Outlook for U.S. Agriculture

A shift in global trade relations is taking shape between the United States and India, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to influence energy markets and global supply chains. With a ceasefire in place, uncertainty remains around key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic disruptions are impacting fertilizer movement and raising concerns across agriculture.

RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney joined us on Friday’s Market Day Report to break down what these developments mean for farmers.

In his interview with RFD NEWS, Haney discusses what renewed engagement between the U.S. and India signals for global agricultural trade, how tariff rollbacks could impact producers as negotiations continue, and how broader geopolitical strategies— including U.S. involvement in the region—may shape ag markets moving forward.

WASDE Raises Corn, Soybean Prices; Wheat Stocks Increase

USDA’s April WASDE report made very few major changes to U.S. supply, but adjustments to prices and stocks highlight shifting demand across key crops. Corn and soybean outlooks held mostly steady, while wheat supplies and cotton prices moved higher.

Corn projections were unchanged, with feed use steady and strong disappearance reported earlier in the marketing year. The average farm price was raised 5 cents to $4.15 per bushel, reflecting stronger price trends.

Soybean crush increased by 35 million bushels to 2.61 billion, driven by stronger domestic meal demand. Exports were reduced by the same amount, as South American competition continues to pressure U.S. shipments. Ending stocks held at 350 million bushels, while the average price rose 10 cents to $10.30.

Wheat supplies increased due to higher imports, while domestic use declined slightly. Ending stocks rose to 938 million bushels — the largest since 2019/20 — and the average farm price increased to $5.00 per bushel.

Cotton saw no balance sheet changes, but the season-average price ticked up to 61 cents per pound.