USDA cuts 2025 pork production forecast amid PRRS outbreaks

A sluggish slaughter rate and a drop in dressed weights for the second half of the year has pushed 2025 pork production down 1% from the July forecast to 27.7 billion pounds. July estimated federally inspected hog slaughter was also considerably lower than the June Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report’s calculation, at 10.2 million head, a 3.9% dip from July 2024 FI slaughter numbers. USDA Economic Research Service Agricultural Economists Mildred Haley and Adriana Valcu-Lisman attribute the reduction in hog numbers to unusually high rates of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome in the second quarter, continuing into June.

“The Swine Health Information Center presented information in its August newsletter indicating that the second quarter of 2025 marked the highest number of PRRSV outbreaks in the wean-to-market segment of the U.S. hog sector since 2013,” stated Haley and Valcu-Lisman. “The publication notes further that the number of diagnosed PRRSV cases in the second quarter of 2025 was among the highest on record.”

According to the USDA ERS Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook for August 2025, estimated average dressed weights last month were also slightly lower than the year prior, as producers responded to higher hog prices by marketing hogs at lower weights. Total FI pork production in July came in at 2.2 billion pounds, a 4% reduction from 2024.