US Dethroned as World’s Top Beef Producer, Report Says

Brazil overtook the United States as the world’s largest beef producer in 2025, according to market estimates, after output surged well above earlier forecasts and helped ease tight global supplies that had pushed meat prices higher.

Brazil was already the world’s top beef exporter, shipping nearly $17 billion worth of beef in 2025, based on government trade data. While official production figures are not due until February, analysts have steadily raised their estimates as Brazilian producers sent more cattle to slaughter to capitalize on strong export demand from markets including China and the United States, where domestic beef supplies have been constrained, according to a Reuters report.

Higher slaughter typically sets the stage for a subsequent production downturn as producers retain cattle to rebuild herds. Industry analysts, however, said Brazil’s productivity gains are reshaping that cycle. Faster breeding, improved genetics and greater use of feedlots have allowed cattle to be finished and harvested at younger ages without sharply reducing herd size.

Rabobank, which had previously expected Brazil’s beef production to fall in 2025, now projects modest growth to about 12.5 million metric tons on a carcass-weight basis. The U.S. Department of Agriculture in December raised its estimate for Brazilian beef production by 450,000 tons to 12.35 million tons.

If those estimates are confirmed, 2025 would mark the first year Brazil surpassed U.S. beef production. USDA data show U.S. output fell 3.9% in 2025 to about 11.8 million tons following years of drought and herd liquidation, with another 0.9% decline projected for 2026.

While both USDA and Rabobank expect Brazilian production to soften in 2026, Nogueira said continued efficiency gains could instead lift output by another 300,000 tons.