Rabobank analyst forecasts slow U.S. cattle herd rebuild

The senior beef industry analyst at Rabobank says he’s expecting a slow rebuild of the U.S. cattle herd.

“I think we’re really looking at 2026 and 2027 of being the real start of heifer retention.”

Lance Zimmerman says cow herd culling has slowed, and he’s keeping a close watch on forage availability and profitability.

“Both of those things are overwhelmingly positive right now. Our hay inventories are as strong as they’ve been since 2017. Profitability is wildly strong right now. We’re talking about $1,000 per head profits for a lot of these operations.”

He says the cow-calf sector has lingering concerns over the break that happened after the last herd rebuilding.

“The market went through a 100-week correction after the highs in 2015.”

But Zimmerman says the current cattle market is completely different, and calf prices are likely to remain supported in the near-term.