Pork Industry Growth Curtailed, Productivity Prioritized

Tightening herds, shifting trade policies and persistent disease pressures are putting the brakes on global pork industry growth in 2026, according to Rabobank’s first-quarter report.

Analysts say the sow herd will likely decline this year while the industry rebalances supply and demand, exemplified by China’s sow her projected to decline to 39 million head compared with 40.3 million head in September 2025. Meanwhile, medium-sized markets in Europe are hampered by African Swine Fever and anti-dumping duties.

“We expect sufficient supply to keep prices subdued in [the first half of 2026], with tighter supply in [the second half of 2026] supporting a price rebound,” they wrote. “Across the globe, productivity improvement remains a key focus, as producers navigate ongoing challenges.”

Trade, for example, will be volatile due to import policy changes by major players like China and Mexico, Rabobank observes. Mexico will introduce import quota to non-FTA suppliers and launch anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations into US pork, while China imposes anti-dumping duties on EU pork imports. Meanwhile, Japan and the Philippines still ban Spanish pork due to ASF concerns.