New World screwworm fears push beef prices higher

The Texas A&M University Food Price Predictor: Summer 2025 Meat Prices report released earlier this summer by the Texas A&M College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Department of Agricultural Economics projects modest price changes for most meat cuts from May to October.

However, a looming threat from the New World screwworm is disrupting beef markets and driving prices higher than initially forecast. The Summer 2025 Meat Prices report, authored by a team of Texas A&M economists originally predicted modest declines in beef prices, thanks to stable feed and fuel costs, as well as more efficient cattle processing.

Lead author Dr. Simon Somogyi, the Dr. Kerry Litzenberg Sales and Economics Endowed Chair and incoming head of the Department of Agricultural Economics, however, said rising concerns about the New World screwworm, a flesh-eating parasitic pest, are tightening cattle supplies further and leading to unexpected price spikes.

Predictions based on trends

This 2025 report used machine learning models and historical price trends along with new real-time retail data from analytics firm Numerator, Somogyi said. The report’s co-authors were Dr. David Anderson, professor and Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service livestock and food product marketing specialist; Dr. Yong Liu, assistant professor; and Weifang Liang, a doctoral student.