New Beef Outlook Indicates Less Production in 2025

While many across the country are enjoying turkey on this Thanksgiving Day, we want to think about another protein looking ahead into next year. According to a report from Rusty Halvorson, the latest beef outlook is for less production in 2025.

U.S. beef production this year is running a little higher than had been expected despite a gradually diminishing supply of cattle. But USDA Outlook Board Chairman Mark Jekonowksi says we are coming to the point where beef output in 2025 is going to have to head downward because of what’s been going on over the last three years.

“We’re not retaining many heifers to grow the herd. We keep, you know, pulling those cattle into feedlots to produce today instead of beef [in] months and years ahead.”

The result could be a projected beef production decline next year of over 2.5 percent, with a corresponding increase in steer prices. Jekanowski says USDA’s Outlook Board has raised its steer price forecast for both 2024 and 2025.

“For 2024, we have a price forecast of $186.68 per hundredweight. We expect that to strengthen further in 2025 with even tighter supplies. So, our current forecast for 2025 is $188 per hundredweight. That would be up $1.32 per hundredweight, year over year.”