Lagging exports will put more pork on domestic market, likely at lower prices

Pork trade, specifically how tariffs stand to impact export and import volumes, and therefore prices, continues to be a hot topic in the current political environment.

Export markets provide additional demand above the level needed to satisfy the domestic market. If an export market is lost, or reduced, the pork products intended for that market do not just disappear. They need to be consumed elsewhere. All else unchanged, enticing domestic consumers and/or other foreign markets to buy the displaced pork will take lower prices. Price declines needed “to clear” the domestic market apply to all domestic pork being sold, not just on the lost export tonnage displaced into our domestic market.

Even if tariffs ultimately do not change from 2024 levels, or change less than some expect, the volume of 2025 U.S. pork exports seems likely to dip below last year’s record level.

Here’s how to run the base numbers

Supply and use balance sheets are the jumping off point. Beginning stocks, plus production and imports give total supply. Subtracting off exports and projected ending stocks gives the available supply for the domestic market. The market will clear and absorb all that is produced at the equilibrium price, where supply and demand are balanced. Analysts continually strive to detect changes in all supply and usage variables over time in attempts to forecast price action.