Hog Market Faces Historic Downturn as Demand Crisis Deepens

The U.S. hog market is experiencing an unprecedented slump, with prices continuing their long drift from summer highs as weak demand overshadows supply fundamentals in ways industry veterans say they’ve never witnessed before.

Dave Delaney, livestock marketing specialist at EverAg, joined Agritalk to discuss the deteriorating market conditions that have left both producers and packers struggling.

A Historic Market Anomaly

According to Delaney, the market’s drop marks a puzzling break from historical norms. Earlier this year, expectations of tighter hog supplies led many to anticipate higher cash values through the summer. But even when hog slaughter tightened between June and September, the anticipated price rally never arrived.

“That’s the first time in my 41-year career history that we didn’t get a bump in cash or cutout due to lower numbers,” Delaney says.

The Demand Problem

When asked what derailed the market, Delaney points straight to consumption.

“Well, you talked about the bad news and I think there’s more to come, but it’s a six-letter word and it’s demand for pork,” Delaney explains. “We’ve seen demand just spiral lower, whether it’s in the retail sector or QSR restaurants. It is continuing to go south and we need to stop it. The per-capita consumption among Gen Z’s is about 5.8 pounds of pork per year.”

Delaney stresses that demand headwinds extend well beyond younger domestic demographics. Export competition has mounted, while dietary perceptions at home are weighing on value-added cuts.