Global beef trade faces limits despite new deals

Recent trade agreements could reshape global beef trade flows in 2026, according to RaboResearch’s latest global beef quarterly report; however, short-term impacts will be minimal.

A series of trade announcements loom over the future of the global beef sector, including the signing of the EU-Mercosur agreement, which took effect on May 1. The deal allows Mercosur countries to export beef under the Hilton Quota (approximately 47,000 tonnes) at zero tariff and introduces a new quota, gradually increasing to 99,000 tonnes at a reduced 7.5% tariff.

“This will improve the competitiveness of Mercosur beef in the EU market, but it doesn’t automatically translate into higher volumes,” explained Angus Gidley-Baird, senior animal protein analyst at RaboResearch. “Exports to the EU are already at relatively high levels, which limits how much further volumes can grow in the short term.”

Meanwhile, Australia and the European Union concluded trade talks in late March. Their deal will eliminate the 20% tariff applied to beef under the Hilton Quota (3,389 tonnes) and introduce a new 30,600 tonnes quota. Gidley-Baird noted that the 10-year-phase-in period for the agreement will provide limited benefits for Australian exporters.

Another major trade development was China’s renewal of expired export licenses for more than 400 US beef plants on May 16, which will allow for increased US beef exports. Although considering lower beef availability and higher prices, RaboResearch believes US exports to China in 2026 will still be limited. At the same time, China’s safeguard measures and quota system continue to influence import patterns, with demand expected to increase for US beef once quotas for other suppliers are filled mid-year.

More so impacting trade patterns in the present day is the continued strain on the global beef supply. Beef production declined by 2.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026 and is forecast to fall by 2.2% over the full year, RaboResearch reported. Contractions can be seen across major producing regions, including Brazil, the United States and China.

Cattle prices have increased between 2% and 9% across most regions in the first quarter, with Brazil recording the strongest rise at 9%.