Feeder cattle prices should remain at historical highs in 2025

At the time of writing this article in the latter half of December, U.S. and Canadian feeder cattle prices were trading at or near historical highs.

I’ve received many inquiries from cattle producers regarding the price outlook for feeder cattle in 2025. The benchmark for the western Canadian feeder market is central Alberta. During December 2024, quality-genetic backgrounded yearling steers averaging 900 lbs. were trading around $350 per hundredweight (cwt) and similar-weight heifers were quoted at $320/cwt.

Steer calves weighing 700 lbs. were readily trading around $400/cwt and similar-weight heifers were selling for $350/cwt. Steer calves weighing 500-525 lbs. were selling for $500/cwt while heifers were at a $50-$60/cwt discount. The feeder cattle market is factoring in a sharp year-over-year decline in available supplies for the 2025 calendar year.

We mentioned in the previous article that the U.S. closed the border to Mexican feeder cattle after New World screwworm was found near the Mexico-Guatemala border. The U.S. imports about 1.2 million Mexican feeder cattle every year. At this stage, the fed and feeder cattle markets are factoring in no imports of Mexican feeder cattle for 2025. However, ideas are that the normal trade will resume in March or April, but those are only estimates.

U.S. and Canadian fed cattle prices have been percolating higher over the past few weeks. At the time of writing this article in mid-December, Alberta packers were buying fed cattle at $250/cwt f.o.b. feedlot in southern Alberta, up $6-$7/cwt from a month earlier. Cattle on feed in Alberta and Saskatchewan as of Dec. 1, 2024 were 1.092 million head, down six per cent or 68,317 head from Dec. 1, 2023. More importantly, cattle on feed 150 days or longer as of Dec. 1, 2024 were 46,353 head, down 52 per cent from 12 months earlier. Fed cattle supplies are somewhat tighter in the short term.