Dennis Sun: There Are No Crystal Balls When It Comes To Beef Prices

I realize I’ve written numerous columns about beef and its high prices in the last year, but it is big news for consumers, processors, feeders and producers alike.

Every month, there is big news about beef at the meat counter, including consumers paying record prices and cattle bringing in record prices for producers.

I don’t think there has been a span of months this long where cattle prices have steadily continued going up. Futures have wobbled a few times in the last couple of years, but cattle prices have just kept rising with no end in sight.

High prices at video and private treaty sales, along with sale barn results, are the talk every week.

In fact, every week talk in the hills seems to begin with, “Did you hear about such and such sale results?”

Then the next week starts over again with even higher prices.

Selling and buying heifers and pregnant cows for replacements is a very hard decision for cattle producers to make these days. Ag economists say one should figure out how many calves it takes to pay for replacement heifers.

CattleFax said in 2025 this figure is projected to average 2.75 calves, which is well below the long-term average of 4.5 calves and beneath the 2015 peak of nine calves. One negative factor is this ratio is bound to rise as bred heifers and cows go up and if calf prices drop off.

Depending on the producers’ economics, are pregnant cows too expensive to sell?