Cull cows and beef production

According to the USDA July “Livestock Slaughter” report, cattle slaughter totaled 2.4 million head in June. This is a 12% decrease year-over-year and a 7% decrease since last month. Total cattle slaughter for the first 6 months of 2024 is 4% below the total for the first 6 months of 2023. Beef cow slaughter for the first half of the year is 15% lower than 2023 and has declined by almost 20% since January.

As a result of a decrease in cow slaughter due to limited cattle supplies, beef production is consequently expected to decrease in 2024, and by even more in 2025. However, forecasts for beef production in 2024 have increased by 555 million pounds since January due to an increase in number of days on feed and carcass weights of fed cattle. The forecast for 2024 is now 26.655 billion pounds, a 1% decline from 2023.

The somewhat steady rate of steer and heifer slaughter combined with longer days on feed and heavier carcass weights are offsetting the decreased cow slaughter and “softening” the beef production decline in 2024. Total steer and heifer slaughter for the first half of 2024 are both roughly 1% lower compared to 2023. The number of cattle on feed for over 120 days is 10% higher than 2023 and 5% higher than the 5-year average (2018-2022). Dressed carcass weights for steers in June averaged 915 pounds with heifer carcass weights averaging 834 pounds. During the first half of the year, dressed weights for steer and heifer carcasses averaged 919 pounds and 842 pounds, more than 2-2.5% higher than 2023.