Cattle slaughter, beef production leading to lower exportable supplies

Cattle slaughter and beef production continue to track below year-ago levels, which is leading to lower exportable beef supplies for the global market. Year-to-date through August, weekly cattle slaughter is tracking about 4% below the same period in 2023. During the same period, cattle dressed weights have been about 3% higher, on average, from last year. The higher-than-expected dressed weights have partially offset the lower slaughter numbers, leading to beef production, year-to-date through August, down about 1%. Lower beef production through the first eight months of the year has resulted in lower available beef supplies for the global export market.

From January through July, total U.S. beef exports were nearly 1.8 billion pounds, which was a 2.9% decrease from the same period in 2023. Of the top five U.S. beef export destinations, year-to-date export levels through July were down. South Korea was down 12%, China 9% and Canada 3%. Export levels to Japan and Mexico were up 0.2% and 14%, respectively.

Despite the year-to-date decline in total U.S. beef export volumes, the total U.S. beef export value is 6% higher than last year to nearly $5.5 billion from January to July. On a value basis, year-to-date U.S. beef exports are higher for South Korea (up 3%), Mexico (up 22%), Japan (up 5%), and Canada (up 11%), while the value of U.S. beef exports to China is lower (down 5%). The volume of total U.S. beef exports in 2024 is expected to be below 2023, but the value of total U.S. beef exports is likely to be higher than a year ago.