Bullish on beef: Ranchers expect high prices and demand, cattle shortage to continue

Ranchers feel bullish as cattle prices hit record highs this summer and remain elevated thanks to record low inventory and strong beef demand. “It bodes well for us right now. If you’re a cow-calf producer, you’re in a good spot,” said Todd Nash, past president of the Oregon Cattlemen’s Association. Experts don’t expect this beef cycle to end until 2028 at the earliest, as they believe cattle numbers will continue to shrink. “When there’s a margin to be made, you have to take care of business. That might delay the rebuild,” said Cameron Mulrony, executive vice president of the Idaho Cattle Association. Many producers feel compelled to sell rather than holding onto heifers that could contribute to national herd expansion. Other ranchers are retaining calves because low feed costs result in efficient weight gains, but that strategy also tightens supplies. “There are more guys right now that are playing the weight game,” said Chelsea Hajny, executive vice president of the Washington Cattlemen’s Association. According to the USDA, feedlots prefer to hold cattle to heavier weights if supplies are tight to utilize pen space. That results in a slow pace of marketing and heavier cattle. Starting in July and through August, weekly cattle slaughter slowed seasonally but to levels that were the lowest since 2015. While cow-calf producers and feedlots are cashing in, processors are feeling the pinch, according to an August Rabobank report.