Texas beef prices could see dramatic increase for producers, consumers

The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture cattle inventory report delivered another clear signal that the U.S. beef herd has yet to turn the corner, and Texas remains central to the story, said Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service experts.

Nationally, the number of beef cows dropped just over 1 percent, a sharper decline than many market analysts expected, said David Anderson, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension economist in the Texas A&M Department of Agricultural Economics.

In Texas, the nation's largest beef-producing state, cow numbers dipped by another 30,000 head, but producers held back 50,000 more heifers - an 8 percent increase in replacements that could signal the early stages of a slow rebuild, Anderson said.

He said strong calf prices and historically tight cattle supplies continue to shape producer decisions about growing their herds.

"That suggests we're bottoming out - holding a few more replacements for future growth," Anderson said. "But there's nothing here that suggests rapid growth."

A slower rebuild and tighter cattle supplies will continue to ripple from cow-calf operations to feedlots and packers, all the way to grocery stores, Anderson said.

Beef herd numbers signal slow rebuild

The rebuild process appears far more measured than past post-drought recoveries, said Jason Cleere, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension beef cattle specialist in the Texas A&M Department of Animal Science. Heifer retention ratios are trending upward across many regions of the state, yet high prices are causing some ranchers to weight short-term returns against long-term herd growth.