Beef cattle prices start to reduce demand

McDonald’s sales dropped in the first quarter, marking the second consecutive quarter of declines as its customers pull back spending amid economic uncertainty.

Visits from low-income consumers are down nearly double digits from last year and middle income is also declining. U.S. same-store sales dropped 3.6 per cent; the decline was the worst drop since COVID of 2020.

Wholesale beef prices have been hovering at historical highs during May. For the week ending May 3, wholesale choice beef was averaging US$343/cwt while select product was valued at US$324/cwt.

In Kansas, live cattle were trading as high as US$218/cwt. In southern Alberta, packers were buying cattle on a live basis at $294/cwt. Live cattle prices on both sides of the border have made fresh record highs during the first week of May. Break-even pen closeouts in Alberta are in the range of $255-$265/cwt, f.o.b. feedlot. Feeding margins have been favourable during the first five months of 2025, causing the feeder market to trend higher.

At the time of writing this article, larger-frame, lower-flesh Charolais steers averaging 850 lbs. were valued at $420/cwt in central Alberta while higher quality 500-lb. steers were bringing back $570/cwt.

Market-ready supplies on both sides of the border are at seasonal lows. Analysts use the placement data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Cattle on Feed reports to project the number of cattle available for slaughter each month. You can see in the table here that the monthly numbers start to build in May and June. More importantly, supplies are not much different than last year’s.