Are cattle prices starting to top out?

The continued narrative of tight supplies of cattle in the United States has kept live cattle futures prices in a strong uptrend. Also supportive to prices has been the notion of strong domestic demand for beef for the first half of 2024. This combination of low supply and high demand has continued to keep live cattle futures prices near all-time high values.

Bull markets need to be constantly fed fresh, friendly fundamental news. The most recent Cattle on Feed report failed to provide anything that would be perceived as “over the top” friendly.

The July 19 Cattle on Feed report provided very few surprises. The on-feed number came in at 101% of a year ago, right on trade expectations. Also, right on expectations, was the marketing number, which was 91% of the year prior. A slight surprise to the market was the placement number coming in at 93%, which was below the estimate of 96.4%; however, that was within the wide range of estimates of 89.9 to 100.7.

From a marketing perspective…

Without a doubt, the cattle complex continues to enjoy overall price strength, with market prices for both live cattle and feeder cattle futures still trading near all-time highs. However, these lofty prices may be starting to lose their luster.