AgriLife Extension economist: Cattle prices haven’t hit the ceiling yet

Cattle prices still have room to go up, said a Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service expert.

With smaller supplies of cattle on hand and good demand for beef continuing, prices could hold and go higher yet, said David Anderson, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension livestock marketing economist and professor, Texas A&M Department of Agricultural Economics, who spoke at the Texas A&M Beef Cattle Short Course.

“We are going to produce less beef this year and next year and maybe into 2028,” Anderson said. “We can’t expand the herd in a drought, and the whole Great Plains area has been and is still dry. Expansion is going to happen slowly due to the drought, higher input costs and interest rates, and the market volatility — tariffs, trade, screwworm and other pests — we are still seeing.”

Expansion might be starting, but takes time

Anderson said the slow movement to herd expansion means increases in beef production will also be slow.

“One way to increase beef production will be the cattle from Mexico, with the planned border openings later this month,” he said. “But that will also depend on the speed of the port openings and the number of cattle coming into the U.S.”

The Santa Teresa, New Mexico, port west of El Paso is the largest entry point for Mexican cattle, with more than 500,000 head moving through annually. That port will be the second or third of the various ports to open, with the Douglas, Arizona, port opening first.

“We’ll start importing feeder cattle; my expectation is it will slowly ramp up, and we won’t get as many as we were in 2024 and before,” Anderson said. “These numbers will add to our supply of feeder cattle, but it won’t really depress prices. We’re still going to have high prices.”