2025 pork production reduced following March Hogs and Pigs Report

Downward revisions to the lighter weight categories in the September hog inventory, as reported in the latest Hogs and Pigs Report, seem to be responsible for a moderate reduction in 2025 U.S. pork production. According to the USDA Economic Research Service Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook for April 2025, total 2025 pork production is now forecast at 28.1 billion pounds, down about 350 million pounds, or 1.2%, from the previous forecast in March.

First quarter estimated federally inspected pork production was around 6.9 billion pounds, a 2% reduction from 2024 figures, “with slightly heavier estimated average dressed weights offsetting a marginal amount of the effects of lower animal numbers,” notes USDA ERS Agricultural Economist Mildred Haley.

“The current forecast for second-quarter 2025 production is almost 1% higher than in the same-period last year. Last month’s forecast—before publication of the March Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report—showed second-quarter pork production up 2.4% compared with a year earlier,” states Haley.

Q1 estimated FI hog slaughter was 31.9 million head, 2.3% below numbers a year prior. Haley points to reports of disease in some large operations throughout the Midwest as a possible reason for the large year-over-year reduction in those numbers.

First-quarter prices of live equivalent 51–52% hogs averaged $62.57 per hundredweight, nearly 14% higher than Q1 2024. Haley attributes lower supplies of slaughter-ready hogs and higher prices of all proteins for the higher hog prices in Q1.

The USDA ERS anticipates Q2 hog prices to average around $63/cwt, almost 4% lower than a year earlier. For Q3, live equivalent prices of 51–52% lean hogs are forecast to be $65/cwt, up more than 2% from the year prior. Fourth quarter hog prices are expected to be around $54/cwt, almost 13% lower than Q4 2024 prices.