2024 cattle inventory remains lowest since 1951

For the first time since 2016, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service did not publish the July Cattle Inventory report due to budget constraints. This report is crucial for producers and analysts to gauge cattle inventory trends and plan accordingly.

Its absence makes it challenging to understand current inventory levels and future market conditions, creating a significant information gap in the industry. However, the American Farm Bureau Federation economists have prepared a market update for the second half of 2024 that includes cattle, hogs, and poultry.

Cattle inventories

The January report estimated the total U.S. cattle and calves population at 87.2 million. The 2024 cattle inventory is the lowest since 1951, leading to high beef prices as supply tightens.

Prolonged drought and high costs have led to increased cow and heifer marketing since 2020, significantly reducing the number available for calf production. This reduction in breeding stock has long-term implications for herd size and beef supply. The current market conditions reflect these challenges, as producers struggle to maintain herd numbers while dealing with environmental and economic pressures.

The July Cattle on Feed report indicated 11.3 million cattle and calves on feed, up 1 percent from last year. However, a high proportion of these are heifers, suggesting that farmers are not currently focused on rebuilding their herds. Instead, they are opting to market more heifers, further depleting the future breeding stock. This decision is likely driven by immediate financial pressures and the uncertainty surrounding feed availability and costs.

Estimating the calf crop size is challenging without the July report. Historically low calf crop numbers are likely, impacting future herd expansion. This uncertainty makes it difficult for stakeholders to predict market trends and make informed decisions about production and investment. The lack of reliable data hinders the ability to forecast supply and demand dynamics accurately, increasing market volatility.