Can cattle prices continue the 2024 recovery rally?

Early 2023 saw an exciting price rally for cattle futures. That rally ended abruptly in the fall of 2023, with prices erasing most of those early gains by year end. Now in 2024, cattle prices have regained a good portion of those losses, but what will the rest of 2024 hold?

What’s happened

The price rally that occurred in the cattle complex during 2023 was due to the reality of tight U.S. cattle supplies. That sentiment was solidified once again in the January Cattle Inventory Report, which confirmed the smallest U.S. cow herd at 28.2 million head – the lowest since the report was first established in 1972.

The All Cattle and Calves figure at 87.157 million head was 98% of a year ago. All heifers 500 pounds and over was 99% of a year ago. Heifers for beef cow replacement was 99% and heifers expected to calve was 98% and calves under 500 pounds came in at 13.284 million, only 97% of last year. The data points to further tight supplies of market-ready cattle over the next two years.